October Toronto Real Estate Market Update
O hushed October morning mild,
Thy leaves have ripened to the fall;
Tomorrow’s wind, if it be wild,
Should waste them all.
The crows above the forest call;
Tomorrow they may form and go.
O hushed October morning mild,
Begin the hours of this day slow.
- Robert Frost
Ahh, October. The season of change. Who doesn’t love the fall? And who doesn’t love this weather right now?
It's been a beautiful and mild start to the season so far - the sun is still shining, the temperature is pleasant, and even, the grass is still green.
But I would be remiss not to notice the days are getting shorter, nights longer, and in general, the winds of change are upon us…
And not just a change into a new season, a change perhaps, into a new Real Estate Market…
Last month, I broke out the megaphone and declared that we were in a balanced real estate market.
Balanced in that the number of new and active listings exploded on the market (inventory/supply increase), but at the same time, the buyer demand was there to meet it. There was an increase in Freehold Home sales, the average price was up, and it was even taking less time to sell.
Homes were selling, but buyers were still negotiating prices and terms. It was actually quite nice; both parties could feel like they walked away from the table with a win.
Yes, the condo market was still stagnant, but there were some very encouraging signs/stats that things were starting to turn around…slowly.
But that wasn’t fast enough for some, and with a Bank of Canada announcement planned for Oct. 23rd, there were rumblings that we would get a significant interest drop to really get the market and buyers moving… and we did!
50 basis points brought the median to around 3.75%, which some buyers celebrated as an Oprah giveaway.
That’s a pretty big drop and the largest since 2020, so would it have any immediate effect?
Would this be the spark?
If you know me, you know I love to put on my Sherlock Holmes chapeu and do some Real Estate digging and detective work (aka be a real estate nerd 🤓) so I got to work!
Between Oct. 23rd and Oct. 31st, there are 8 days, so roughly 26% of the month.
In those 8 days, and since the announcement, I looked up each property type and their respective sales. In those 8 days, this happened :
Detached - 28% of the sales (238 out of 838) for October
Semi Detached - 41% of the sales (107/263)
Townhomes - 29% (30/102)
Condo Townhomes - 33% (40/122)
Condo Apartments - 35% (397/1162)
In 8 days, A LOT of sales happened, so of course, I’m thinking, what will happen next?
Is this “the shift”? And are we moving into a new type of market? Surely, a .50 drop can’t have this much of an effect, can it? What about Trump? Will that have any impact on us? November is going to be very interesting …
I can’t predict the future, but I can read statistics, and Octobers are a little like tea leaves. Although they are not 100% clear and straightforward, there is something there that gives us hints at what is happening now. And, perhaps, what is to come…
You've read my personal opinion, but now here are the cold, hard facts.
Please note that these statistics cover only the City of Toronto. Not Richmond Hill, Not Mississauga, Not Vaughan, etc. If you would like to know what's happening in another area in GTA, please reach out and let me know. I'm happy to chat!
Want to look on your own and see the numbers for yourself? Click Here to view the official statistics that every Real Estate gets sent from TREB and uses for their market updates. These are the exact numbers I use for my Toronto updates and if you want, I can prepare an update as detailed as this blog update for your city, neighbourhood and even street.
Don't be shy, reach out and just ask!
So without further ado, let's take a look at the October Statistics with the charts and breakdown below ⤵️
After September's explosion of new listings hitting the market, there was bound to be a comedown, and across the board, there was.
ALL property types had a decrease compared to last month, but keep in mind, this was still better than anything in the summer and, for buyers, was a great boom in having more options to look from…and potentially buy.
Looking at those options, specifically,
Detached homes went from 2108 new listings to 1704, a -19.17% decrease.
Semi-Detached went from 528 to 469, a -11.17% decrease.
Freehold Townhomes went from 234 to 183, a -21.79% decrease.
Condo Townhomes went from 454 to 445, a -1.98% decrease.
Condo Apartments went from 3707 to 3121, a -15.81% decrease.
Key Takeaway -Even though there was a “decrease” October still saw a lot of listings come out and continued the trend of sellers from the summer who took their homes off the market, now re-listing and trying again, and for the most part, it worked (see sales section).
Seller confidence is seemingly aligning with Buyer confidence, and that’s created a perfect balance (there's that word again!), but with a significant interest rate drop, will that change things and, instead of a perfect balance, create a perfect storm? And for who?
Last month, both new and active listings surged, and this month, both decreased. So, what does that mean exactly? It means, very simply, homes are selling! And after last months eruption of listings, to see 4 out of 5 property types have a decrease in inventory is very noteworthy and tells me, confidently, that the buyers are BACK.
Specifically,
Detached homes went from 2413 to 2357, a -2.32% decrease.
Semi-Detached went from 525 to 515, a -1.9% decrease.
Freehold Townhomes went from 254 to 225, a -11.42% decrease.
Condo Townhomes went from 645 to 710, a 10.8% increase.
Condo Apartments went from 6119 to 5884, a -3.84% decrease.
Key Takeaway - Slowly but surely, inventory/supply/listings are being bought up and with more incentives and perhaps another interest rate drop coming before the new year, I predict that trend will continue.
Now, will sellers keep up the supply and continue to list? That is another quesion entirely, but I think, we can say yes, but not at the current level we are seeing. Right now, the amount of options for buyers is terrific and remember each home and each seller are completely different and complete individuals. What you see today, you may not see tomorrow so don't hope and wait. Homes are selling now.
If last month was the eruption of listings, this month was like Vesuvius! A roaring return from the Real Estate Market in October saw even, yes, I’m writing this correctly, even condos have a big jump in sales! Every single property type had an increase, and not just a little increase, a BIG one. The highest increase was with Freehold Townhomes, with a 72.88% jump, going from 59 to 102 sales. Madness.
Specifically,
Detached homes went from 599 sales to 838, a 39.9% increase.
Semi-Detached went from 133 to 180, a 46.11% increase.
Freehold Townhomes went from 59 to 102, a 72.88% increase
Condo Townhomes went from 99 to 122, a 23.23% increase
Condo Apartments went from 864 to 1162, a 34.49% increase
Key Takeaway - So, what has fueled this surge in activity? More listings/inventory to pick from + Lower Interest Rates (increased affordability) + New Rules to Incentize Buyers Coming in December (added competition coming)+ Reasonable prices, and The Ability to Negotiate = A very pleasant buyer marketplace RIGHT NOW.
However, from mid-December onward, that might change. Some buyers are dealing with FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out), and honestly, that’s perfectly reasonable. The market conditions are pretty great right now if you’re a buyer, and if you’ve followed the Toronto Real Estate Market long enough, you’ll know that doesn’t happen often.
Simply put - Buyers, NOW is your time! Take advantage. Others are.
After Septembers strong month, October kept it going with all 5 property types increasing in average price.
Looking more closely,
Detached homes went from $1,685,755 to $1,778,855, a 5.52% increase.
Semi-Detached went from $1,299,324 to $1,315,547, a 1.25% increase.
Freehold Townhomes went from $1,221,039 to $1,248,037, a 2.21% increase
Condo Townhomes went from $833,706 to $853,140, a 2.33% increase
Condo Apartments went from $707,917 to $721,366, a 1.9% increase
Key Takeaway -Listings down, sales up, and now, average price up across the board? Those are usually the indicators of a solid seller's market if you see that 3-4 months in a row, but if it’s the first month after a few slow ones combined with recent and upcoming changes, it signals that perhaps a change is on the horizon or already happening.
A slight increase in the number of days it took to sell freeholds is not too surprising, afterall, we did have a huge influx of new listings hit the market but considering the highest increase was just 3 days, and that type of property type (townhomes) had a monster month for sales I am not shocked. What does cause me to do a double take was seeing Condos start to take less time to sell.
Looking at each property type :
Detached went from 21 to 22 days to sell (a 4.76% increase).
Semi-Detached 17 to 19 days (a 11.76% increase).
Freehold Townhome 17 to 20 days (a 17.65% increase).
Condo Townhomes 30 to 25 days (a -16.67% decrease).
Condo Apartments 34 to 32 days (a -5.88% decrease).
Key Takeaway - Are condos becoming popular again? It might be still too early but buyers may be gravitating toward condos due to relatively lower prices compared to freeholds, making them attractive to first-time buyers.
Ok! That's it for now. Thanks for reading and have a great day! 👋 - Tyson CR
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