November Toronto Real Estate Update

Do you remember that song from Wyclef Jean, "Gone Til November"? It’s a good one, isn’t it? This month, I couldn’t get it out of my head. But not the original classic—no, no, no. This was a new remix, courtesy of the Toronto Real Estate Market: "Gone In November."

November felt like the market hit the pause button. After October’s bounce-back month and surge in activity, sales slowed, prices dipped, and homes took a little longer to sell.

So, what happened? Why did the market seem to take a step back? Well, there could be a few reasons:

#1 : Real estate moves in seasons. The Fall Market traditionally kicks off with a bang in September, stabilizes in October, and cools off in November before shutting down almost completely by mid-December. This year is no exception. The decline in new listings we saw in November isn’t surprising at all—it’s the status quo. Add to that the fact that some sellers are likely holding off until January, hoping to capitalize on buyer incentives like interest rate cuts and insurance cap increases, and the slower pace starts to make sense.

#2 : With fewer new listings, active inventory dropped to its lowest level since the Spring Market. Normally, a shrinking pool of available homes would set off alarms about an approaching seller’s market, but not this time. Buyers are still cautious, and unless a property is priced exceptionally well or offers standout features, they’re staying patient. This has been the theme of 2024: buyers need to be persuaded.

#3 : October felt like a grand re-opening sale for the market—with a rate cut and a good selection of fresh listings from September’s surge, buyers were excited to shop. But November? Nada. No new stock, no excitement, just a lot of leftovers. Can you blame buyers for taking a break? Especially with another rate cut coming in December, many decided to wait and see what’s next.

And that brings us to the stats: fewer sales and a decline in average prices across the board. At first glance, it sounds grim, but it’s not that simple. The lack of new listings meant most sales were from homes that had been sitting on the market for a while. Sellers, realizing the need to adapt, were more open to negotiation, which likely dragged down the average price. Buyers, on the other hand, probably felt some relief, while sellers might be less thrilled. However, there’s a silver lining: compared to November 2023, both sales and average prices have improved. We’re in a much better position than we were a year ago.

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You've read my personal opinion, but now here are the cold, hard facts.

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Please note that these statistics cover only the City of Toronto. Not Richmond Hill, Not Mississauga, Not Vaughan, etc. If you would like to know what's happening in another area in GTA, please reach out and let me know. I'm happy to chat!  

‍Want to look on your own and see the numbers for yourself? Click Here to view the official statistics that every Real Estate gets sent from TREB and uses for their market updates. These are the exact numbers I use for my Toronto updates and if you want, I can prepare an update as detailed as this blog update for your city, neighbourhood and even street.

Don't be shy, reach out and just ask!

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So without further ado, let's take a look at the November Statistics with the charts and breakdown below ⤵️

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"2 months in a row with a decline in new listings? I thought the market was back? What does this mean???"  Great question! And, the answer is pretty simple and straightforward when you break it down.

Real Estate has seasons/markets/quarters.  Spring, Summer, Fall and Winter.  The fall market usually begins September with a flurry of new listings, stabilizes in October, cools in November, and then shuts it down completely Mid December, with the Winter Market reappearing again in January. This is historically how the Fall Market has trended over the years so really, it's not surprising at all to see this decline in new listings.

Looking at each property type specifically,

Detached homes went from 1704 new listings to 1101, a -35.39% decrease.

Semi-Detached went from 469 to 289 a -38.38% decrease.

Freehold Townhomes went from 183 to 136, a -25.68% decrease.

Condo Townhomes went from 445 to 289, a -35.06% decrease.

Condo Apartments went from 3121 to 2518, a -19.32% decrease.

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Key Takeaway - November is not historically a big month for new listings, quite the opposite actually. As mentioned previously, this is the status quo for November Real Estate.   Also, with new buyer incentives coming in Mid December (interest rate drop, insurance cap increase,etc.), i suspect many sellers have been advised to wait and see the effect and that there a potential for a strong start to 2025. Personally if I was thinking of selling my home, I would be thinking the exact same way and preparing to list early January.

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ALL property types had a decrease in active listings meaning, slowly but surely the inventory/supply are being chipped away at and sold.  The supply still outweighs the demand but for the second month in a row, there are less listings available for sale.

Specifically,

Detached homes went from 2357 to 1971, a -16.38% decrease.

Semi-Detached went from 515 to 428, a -16.89% decrease.

Freehold Townhomes went from 225 to 192, a -14.67% decrease.

Condo Townhomes went from 710 to 648, a -8.73% decrease.

Condo Apartments went from 5884 to 5359, a -8.92% decrease.

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Key Takeaway - Buyers are back and slowly but surely, homes are selling again....eventually.  And with a lack of new listings for another month, the number of active listings reached it's lowest since the Spring Market. Normally, when we start to see the number of for sale homes decline and reach certain levels, the warning sign that we are entering a sellers market will go off but not right now.   But, if we get another month or two of no new listings, and the rates reach 2.75-3%, buyers might start to feel the urge to make a move and then all of sudden, things will change.   I can say confidently, we are in balanced market right now, but as we've seen in the past, things can change very fast.

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With a little amount of new listings to choose from and a fairly predictable rate drop scheduled for early December, buyers took a pause and sales took a dip. Almost all property types declined after a massive October, but Condo Townhomes refused to slow down and continued it's Fall resurgence with another double digit % increase.

Specifically,

Detached homes went from 838 sales to 681, a -18.74% decrease.

Semi-Detached went from 263 to 207, a -21.29% decrease.

Freehold Townhomes went from 102 to 69, a -32.35% decrease

Condo Townhomes went from 99 to 122, a 13.11% increase

Condo Apartments went from 1162 to 1127, a -3.01% decrease

Key Takeaway - Unless it's a great property or a great price, buyers are waiting and staying patient.   They need to be persuaded. This has been the theme of 2024, and October vs November was a perfect example of this.  In October we had a rate cut and still many new listings for Septembers boom to pick from, it was like a grand re-opening sale for our market, and the who doesn't love a sale on new and exciting things?!? November? Nada. No new stock, no sale, just the same as last month for the same price basically.  Would that excite and motivate you?  It sure didn't for many buyers. Add to that the fact there was another rate drop in December, it becomes clearer and makes sense why many buyers took a break in November.

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Just when we thought we had turned a corner and prices were on the rise again... this happens. The average price across all property types declined in November, leaving many scratching their heads and wondering what’s going on. To me, though, this highlights the "balance" in the market. Even with reasonable interest rates, unless they’re paired with equally attractive properties, demand isn’t strong enough to sustain prolonged price growth, leading to inevitable fluctuations.

Specifically,

Detached homes went from  $1,778,855 to $1,695,939, a -4.66% decrease.

Semi-Detached went from $1,315,547 to $1,248,930, a -5.06% decrease.

Freehold Townhomes went from $1,248,037 to $1,166,686, a -6.52% decrease

Condo Townhomes went from  $853,140 to $773,160, a -9.37% decrease

Condo Apartments went from $721,366 to $713,364, a -1.11% decrease

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Key Takeaway -Fewer sales and a decline in average price across the board? Oh boy, that doesn’t sound great, does it?

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At first glance, it’s surprising and a bit confusing. But when you factor in the lack of new listings, it becomes clear that the majority of sales were from homes listed the previous month. These homes had been on the market for a while, so perhaps this month’s sellers were more open to negotiation—ultimately impacting the average price.  

Buyers are probably smiling and feeling a little relief, sellers maybe not so much but, there is a silver lining - year-over-year, sales and the avg price in general have increased from November 2023.  We are in a much better position than last year, there is no doubt about it, but there is still a ways to go.   Even with the rolled buyer incentives, and falling interest rates, the economy is still struggling with high unemployment levels, expensive groceries and in general a high cost of living, that is limiting many people from buying and owning a home.

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Homes were not flying off the shelves in November, in fact, all home types took longer to sell compared to last month.  

Looking at each property type :

Detached went from 22 to 25 days to sell (a 13.64% increase).

Semi-Detached 19 to 21 days (a 10.53% increase).

Freehold Townhome 20 to 23 days (a 15% increase).

Condo Townhomes 25 to 33 days (a 32% increase).

Condo Apartments 32 to 36 days (a 12.5% increase).

Key Takeaway -  Considering the lack of sales and the decline in avg price, it makes sense that homes took longer to sell in November.   It means buyers took their time with negotiations, and that after 3 weeks sellers came to terms with current conditions and agreed, in many cases, to sell for less than list price.

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Ok! That's it for now. Thanks for reading and have a great day! 👋 - Tyson CR

‍‍Want to know what the current value of your home is or what's going on in your neighbourhood?

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If you or anyone is thinking of a move don’t be shy and reach out.  

After all, everyone’s individual situation requires an individual and unique strategy and plan.

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